Well, we can all theorise, but I know what I'm telling my children (and not for the first time): DO NOT BECOME A CAREER PILOT. You're a one trick pony with nothing else to do in an amazingly volatile industry that can be grounded in seconds. Don't bother messing with your life like that. It's too late for me, but not for them. I greatly sympathise with those who've just spent the money to qualify. I have a tertiary qualification in an engineering field; there is zero chance a company would take me over a fresh graduate, as I have the briefest experience in the field, and that was fifteen years ago. All my family and friends with in other industries are back at work, in most cases they never stopped as alternate plans could be made (work from home etc). This career can become a dead end in moments - it always has been the case ie. loss of medical, but now it's plain for all to see just how damaging any world event is. I sincerely hope that school leavers think VERY long and hard about a career in aviation. As I said, the young people whom I most care about in this world get told in no uncertain terms what I think.