Wouldn't it be nice if the company provided a little transparency on the numbers interested in the VR EOI. But lets be honest with ourselves..
With the LWOP get out of jail free card needing to commence prior to the binding VR submissions, a calculated decision is a risky move...but lets crunch the numbers and see how we go -
If you were 63 or older as of July 1 - Lets rule out those who would be silly not to take the elusive "Retirement Package" Approx 50 pilots
60 to 61 - 65
61 to 62 - 59
62 to 63 - 50
Gives you approximately - 170 who would be considering the package very closely. Now I don't have the data on LHvSH age split, but for arguments sake lets assume 20% are SH pilots who are ineligible - Left with around 140 give or take.
Then you have the 60-61 year olds who may run the gamble of holding out and getting back into a seat for 12-18 months (Im assuming most would be 380 pilots who may face 2-3 years on the bench and get a call up at 63-64)
- Holding a class 1, passing the line training on a different fleet after 3 years off and getting the boot without a severance would be a hard and sad way to go out.
Then you have the 55+ crew who will be happy with a few hundred thousand to hang up the wings and continue with their side career or those who just want to enjoy retirement fairly comfortably.
In my opinion I believe the 190 figure will be surpassed. Will the company approve more than 190? No.
Will there be a need for CR? No.
Will the company push for EA negotiations to get more crew stood up when the time comes? Yes
Can they put a date on when these "temporary" variations conclude? No, but this will be monitored extremely closely.
The data above represent figures to 2025 regarding retirements turned into VR
Its no secret that natural attrition will come into play excessively in the years that follow.
2026-2030 - 400
By the time to VR and early retirement has played out we would've reduced the pilot body by around 250 pilots.
2000 will remain reduced to 1600 by 2030 (20%) *Recruitment door closed for several years one would assume.
The company has done what they do best...cast doubt in ones mind. Who can forget the threat of a seperate entity to fly Sunrise only a handful of months ago! the same has happened here. Take LWOP and pass up your leave accruals and we will give you a golden ticket just incase we need to run a CR.
Keg - You seem to have your finger on the pulse - Happy to have your thoughts?
Its a horrid time for our industry and this WILL pass - Stay safe and look after eachoth...sorry I've watched too many Town Halls
Fuji