Originally Posted by
nolimitholdem
That it changes every week demonstrates how useless an estimate it is. Sheer tea-leaves-reading nonsense.
The fact is no one knows where the world, or the industry will be by Christmas, let alone 2024.
Well you may be right but no need to denigrate professionals making forecast .Our sources come from Eurocontrol , IATA weekly updates ( Public , search for them ) Airbus , and a few independent airlines that still employ them , Like Lufthansa for instance.
It is a bit more than reading tea leaves.
The latest Eurocontrol comprehensive assessment dated 8 July is following their predicted curve , we are currently at 21% of 2019 levels, expected to be at 50% by September and may reach 75-80% in Febr 2021 then it is likely to say there for quite some time .. That is for European traffic , which is slightly lagging behind US domestic traffic ( currently at 36%, )
For world wide, traffic IATA is more pessimistic. Same for Airbus. Airlines expansion plans are shelved and they expect the 70% plateau to last until 2024. For info US international traffic is only at 10% currently .
As an aside , re the title of this thread :
Pilots lives matter ...I find this a bit overdone to be honest , The Black community uses this slogan to denounce the murdering of young blacks in the US. There is quite a difference between losing you life and losing your job..