The problem for airlines is that it is not 'just' Covid19. One needs to look at all the other global matters that were in process and continue. That list starts with - but is by no means limited to:_
- The USA levels of debt, as well as in many other countries
- Then look at places where property is seriously overvalued.
- Consider the USA having reached the end of it's period of global domination and the rise of China.
- The re-jigging of Europe.
- The continued pressue from Russia.
- The Middle East is not going to go quiet any time soon.
- The climate problem has not been solved yet.
- After the 2008 financial crash - nothing substantial changed, they just carried on as before.
- Boeing has the problem of it's life still to fix, the Max is going to be an 'albatross' round its neck for years to come.
- Airbus laying people off too.
- Rolls-Royce, GE and other engine manufacturers following down the line. Not to mention all the other companies that supply components for each commercial aircraft.
- The smaller comabines are not immune, Bombardier has debts too.
Think about the way in which all of these have been exacerbated by Covid19 and then ask the old question: Where is the money going to come from? Currently, everyone is printing money and there is a reason that the value of gold is rising! People waiting for things to go back to normal will be surprised. Those expecting the 'new normal' to be better than the old, may be surprised. One of the long awaited changes that
has been shaped by Covid19 is Telecommunting and Office occupancy. From that follows meetings reached by air. I worked in Telecommunications for 27 years, I saw the changes starting 40 years ago. Yes, I agree that there is nothing that replaces a face to face meeting but a lot of those meetings ARE going to be replaced.
My pessimisim is not based on 2020. Some of us saw this pattern of problems 18 months ago, before Covid even began.