Originally Posted by
Ragnor
You base this on what facts? I understand capacity into and out of Victoria is affected, QLD NSW and other states showing strong demand loads have been over 175 to sold out everywhere I’ve been. 4 months is a made up figure unless you have facts stating otherwise if so please share. How is it a burden to QANTAS group? I feel you’re comments are coming from a emotional and personal perspective.
It’s been based on no more outbreaks after September. Post Melbourne lockdown from September Anastasia won’t be opening the gates immediately. That’s a fact. Victoria won’t be opening up immediately also. It’s a staged reopening as seen last month. Dan Andrews will be as cautious as ever, he can’t afford another blunder on reopening otherwise he is gone. Job Keeper ends also soon after. There will be a period of 4-8 weeks of monitoring the numbers soon after opening. If they manage to keep a lid on it then it’s now November and we can start opening up Tourism.
The burden for any airline especially QF and
VA is the prolonged cash burn. Jetstar had significant plans in capacity for the next half out of Melbourne. Melbourne is a large Jetstar base. Alan and Gareth were fairly bullish in regards to domestic capacity in the next half. They had to, no choice, need to reduce that cash burn. Another 4 months of standstill will just drag that cash burn on and on. Not much opportunity to reduce it.
You just hope there isn’t an outbreak in NSW. I’m not overly confident Melbourne can keep a lid on it either after September.
Essentially we need to wait until Mid to Late September to see how Melbourne goes during round 2 in order to work out where we go next.