For me the issue is not how many carriers and subs the Chinese military has but its the way they are controlled and commanded. Central command such as the CCP has over the military does not lend itself to the flexibility and swiftness of decision making that would be required in a major conflict. It was only after Stalin took away the political control of its military that it started to perform well. The Japanese also seriously uinderestimated US industrial capacity when they thought they could knock the US out of the Pacific. I can see the CCP making the same mistake as they view their system of government to be morally and culturally superior. The hope is that the current defense policy is sufficient to warn the CCP that Australia is not asleep at the wheel and that our current diplomatic position indicates that we are not easily intimidated (unless you're a Labor politician).