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Old 6th Jul 2020, 17:43
  #59 (permalink)  
PilotLZ
 
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Even if there is a principally new transport-category aircraft flown by one pilot or, highly unlikely, operated autonomously from the ground, that will be decades away from now. And, with the present state of affairs, I seriously doubt that we'll see ANY major new type until the 2030s. Some Chinese fast-hand remake of something existing, like that dinosaur based on the MD80 which was rolled out recently - maybe. Some minor engine or computer upgrades to an existing type - maybe. But something principally new, involving technology which couldn't become widespread even in cars, let alone in aircraft? I doubt it. First, all major manufacturers need a return on investment for whatever has been designed in the past decade. They will first sell quite a lot of A320neo, B737MAX, A350, B777-9, E190-E2, A220 etc before they will even look into investing into a brand new project. And that will drag on for a while, given the overall deferral of orders for the next 2-4 years. Second, a realistic timeline for developing, testing and certification of a new aircraft type is at least 5 to 7 years, and that if you use only or mostly off-the-shelf components. If you decide to implement avant-garde solutions like autonomous operation capability, you're looking into 8-10 years to make it happen. In the next couple of years, airframers will be struggling to survive as new orders will be lagging well behind airline recovery. Lots of prospective projects already got binned because of that - think the Airbus electrical jet engine for example. So, it's highly unlikely that anyone will roll out anything principally new anytime soon. And then, there are the issues of legislation, insurance, earning public trust and so on.
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