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Old 2nd Jul 2020, 00:15
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tartare
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Here's one of the two documents that form the latest Defence White paper update:
https://www.defence.gov.au/Strategic...cture_Plan.pdf
The plans are ambitious, but my personal view is China will move faster than Australia will be able to develop the sort of capabilities that it needs.
I think any future engagement with China would largely be a skirmish based air-sea battle beyond visual range.
I absolutely agree the ADF needs long range force projection far in excess of what it has now.
The AGM-158 is a good start.
Some kind of diesel-electric boat - ideally unmanned is needed for the shallow waters of the South China sea - nuclear boats are too big to get close.
But the RAN does need nuclear boats with at least long range conventionally tipped cruise missiles to hold China at threat - US leased or procured.
By the time it arrives, the Collins successor will be a big lumbering out of date target.
I personally think Australia needs a full nuclear deterrent, but it'll never fly with the public or politicians.
And the idea that they'll be able to develop or even procure a domestic anti-ballistic missile system or hypersonic glide vehicles in a decade is laughable.
If you think US or UK defence procurement is a clvster**** - I'd argue Australia's is exponentially worse.
They'll still be fighting over the agenda for the committee meeting or trying to sort out problems with Zoom as the first Chinese landing craft hit the beaches.
The next 10 years are going to be a continuation of muddling through, and hoping like hell the US will step up if the CCP get too aggressive...
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