Originally Posted by
Icarus2001
Putting my head on a chopping block here but it is possible that in two to three years time, having lost pilots to early retirement and lost some back to their old industry or profession, coupled with very little training for CPL or ATPL guys due no incentive of jobs, we will face a GREATER pilot shortage than that which existed at the close of 2019. I know it sounds like a very positive few but depending on the return to international travel it is one possible outcome. I mean who is going to consider starting pilot training now with a view to CPL? Older guys that may have had another 2-4 years to go may be taken out of the pool early.
I think there will be oversupply for most of this decade, will also be a wave of returning expats who have also been laid off right over the world, many are already back here.
I know a few who have gone back to GA in order to pay bills and stay in the industry. They are aware that they are joining the progression ladder again and will earn a quarter of their Airbus or Boeing salary for the next 5-10 years. On the flip side you have GA pilots who have been laid off, and I know some who have gone for other GA jobs but have lost out to a Tiger pilot etc. These guys are young, starting families, most will end up just walking away.
Self funding CPLs will be non existent in the not too far future. A operator up north in the medium/long term trying to find a Darwin or Cairns trained CPL IFR Pilot will need to look elsewhere and spend more on localised training. Those sort of CVs were highly regarded back in my day and at the top of the pile when we were sifting through applicants to interview. We had the luxury of being specific on what type of CV we wanted. Now the pile is largely 200 hour hopefuls from down south, with some questionable training operators behind them.
I have no idea how operators expect to even find quality or suitable applicants in the long term (15-20 year mark). I’ve had this debate with senior managers within my operator about medium to long term hiring plans, and having been apart of working groups on the topic in the past, the only solution managers have is increasing the company’s leverage in the cadet business. These guys are the check and trainers of the future.