Originally Posted by
InZed
Correct. But everyone knows the AFFA will get through a second 9-month extension out to almost the end of 2021.
Ouch! Thats a hell of a leap. I for one won't be rubber-stamping it without a lot of personal due diligence. Creating a variation to an existing CEA every time there is an "unprecedented" situation, to "help out" ends up diluting the original document. It'll need to be weighed up carefully against the significant downward pressure coming in May on our T&Cs. "New-normal" has an expiry date. GF will have to change the record at some point, as will ALPA.
Considering that all we are waiting on is a vaccine, I would say that the end of 2021 is about when everyone sees it all picking back up. After all, it took 20 months to create a SARS vaccine. 7 months for an EBOLA vaccine and less than 6 months for ZIKA.
Covid vaccine trials started just after 65 days. I imagine the world will see worldwide vaccine spread by the end of 2020.
While I agree with the sentiment - the whole world is invested in this vaccine - I've never heard such optimistic numbers around development timeframes. 7 months for Ebola???? Last I heard it was the fastest ever vaccine at
Five years! I'd love to see your sources. Despite every other article that you read being a full 180 on the last, I've not seen deviation from the idea that (wrongly) no Corona virus vaccine currently exists (we have of course a 'Flu vaccine of 45% effectiveness), and that developments are measured in years, not months. You are correct that Oxford via their Vietnam lab plan to have most of Europe and the US covered by the end of the year -
if their final trial doesn't throw up any issues. If there are, I'm afraid IATA disagree wholeheartedly with you and see in their
baseline prediction - 2019 levels at the start of 2023. How many roll-overs should we give without any thought to the consequences?