PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages
Old 23rd Jun 2020, 14:13
  #343 (permalink)  
slats11
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
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A safe and effective vaccine is conceivable given the huge $ being spent this time, and given the many independent efforts currently underway. But previous SARS coronavirus vaccine research failed (the vaccine appeared to be hazardous rather than protective to animals who were exposed to the SARS virus after the vaccine). So a vaccine (and any plans dependent on a vaccine) are no more than plausible at this very early stage. I don't think it is realistic to plan on a vaccine.

The economy is sick. Far sicker than many people suspect. Huge money is being invested in stock markets which have recovered quickly. However the stock markets are now totally disconnected from fundamentals in the real world economy. As V-jet said, it is all being propped up by stimulus. But that has to end at some stage.

I suspect COVID will be with us indefinitely. It is much less lethal than previously thought - perhaps 0.1% mortality in well people < 70 years. It can be controlled somewhat - at a price. But I doubt it can be completely contained. Some difficult compromises will need to be taken balancing the twin priorities of stimulating the economy and protecting the vulnerable.

There are multiple geopolitical threats. There is an unpredictable US election in 5 months. And there is the growing spectre of China applying economic pressure to influence Australia's political leaders.

So overall, volatility and risk are both off the scale.

Warren Buffett sold his airline stock. All of it. Including carriers which were majority domestic operations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...after-covid-19
https://www.businessinsider.com/amer...tt-exit-2020-6

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