Several years? All these random time lines. Honestly, no one has a clue when and what post covid will be like.
True. The future is unclear.
But if you don't plan your future, others will plan it for you. Guess what they have planned? Nothing good.
So plan for aviation to be very different for years to come
Short term = next few months = effectively shut down with very limited domestic operations
Medium term = next 6-12 months = reduced operations, with domestic recovering before international
Long term - a progressive and gradual return towards business as before. However there will be some permanent change. This has been too disruptive to our collective psychology and to the economy to expect there won't be a long term consequence. Major events change the world, and there is a "before" and an "after" COVID is such an event.
The medium term is the important thing to focus on right now. I expect
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). This will hit airline revenue. Hard. A minority of seats count for most of the profit.
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y.
Leisure V business:
Leisure will recover faster, but will be to different destinations. People will want to travel, and can't get the holiday experience by Zoom.
Business will be harder hit. Fewer conferences. For business meetings, the bean-counters and CEOs will be saying "Well, zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....." In addition to saving $, businesses will think about their liability and reduced productivity if an employee contracted COVID during work-related travel when there was a safer alternative.
Domestic V International
Domestic will obviously recover faster. But even domestic will be affected long term by reduced business travel - there will be reduced business travel between east coast cities, with less day trips for a 1 hour meeting
International business will also be hit hard.
Leisure is the market which will bounce back faster.
NZ will be an early one to open, and people will travel to NZ if that is where they can go.
South Pacific Islands will likely be early. These countries will miss the cruise ship industry, and will be keen to open their economies to tourists from safe destinations. So New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa.
Hawaii may be another viable destination. This will also be missing the cruise industry. Only 700 cases in total. Non-stop, people will decide they can wear a mask for 8 hours if they are the rules. Will be in high demand by tourists seeking more than just a sandy beach.
Bali and Singapore are possible early recoveries, depending on what unfolds there over the next few months.
Long haul will be slowest to recover. Family budgets have been hard hit, and many people won't have the money and won't be able to afford the time away. There will be some of course, but numbers will be way down. The exception will be families keen to reunite after a year or more of not being able to catch up.
So, that is the future I would plan for. And I expect that is the future the airlines are planning for.