Originally Posted by
grizzled
The notion that all, or most, or even 20% of those orders will remain on the books is, in my view, optimistic. Most of the companies that have placed orders are no longer forecasting the same future and / or planning the same expansion, or even fleet replacement, as they were pre-Covid. And many are simply no longer in a financial position to pursue the orders.
The situation post 9/11 was not much different - aircraft were being parked by the hundreds (if not thousands), airlines were in no position to take delivery of new aircraft and had no money to pay for them. Yet nearly every order that Boeing and Airbus had on the books on the first of September, 2001 was eventually delivered. Most months to years later than the original schedule, but aside from a few operators that went bankrupt and disappeared, the aircraft on the books were delivered.