The stock market isn’t the worst indicator of where things are going but it’s far from the best.
TAB etc do a better job of picking winners (sports or elections) than do professional pollsters. Partly because people place their $ on what they honestly believe the outcome will be - not on the outcome they hope for. Partly because of the large numbers of people involved in the markets tend to cancel out bias (scorpion submarine).
I have seen a number of financial analyses peering into the COVID crystal ball. They have been better than the medical analyses. I suspect this is because the financial guys just look at the data and try to see a pattern, rather than trying to get the data it to fit a preconceived model. Perhaps also the financial guys are better funded / resourced.
Sure the markets were slow to price in the bad news. So was just about everyone. But my guess is the pros did ok. It’s unusually the mugs who pile in at the end of a Ponzi scheme who do their dough.