Has the Middle East Peaked as a Hub ?
Prior to the 1990s the ME was simply a refueling stop rather than a transit hub. The latest generation of aircraft with increased range allowed it to be overflown, however they also allowed non stop from the ME to anywhere enabling any two airports to be connected through that location. EK, EY and QR took full advantage of this and built themselves into major hub airlines with a global reach.
The COVID - 19 pandemic has brought all that to a crashing halt, and even as the recovery starts, the hub model of bringing in passengers from all over the world to a central location and then redistributing them all across the network will be out for a long time to come as travel bubbles will favour non stop flights or fuel stops only where this isn't possible. Governments will want to assist their national airlines by permitting their direct flights whilst placing heavy restrictions on other countries airlines connecting flights. One case of COVID - 19 in the cabin crew accommodation would be disastrous for any ME airline as crews typically share apartments in a few common locations.
The A380 concept hasn't worked and possibly the days of the mega international hubs are numbered as well. The latest generation of aircraft, B787 and A320neo have better range and economics than earlier series and allow greater flexibility and more point to point routes. Hubs will still be needed but are likely to be smaller, more numerous, more widely spread out and focused on less distant destinations. One stop connections will still be possible but will likely involve a hub in a more direct line and smaller aircraft.
Filling B773s will be difficult enough, and filling of them enough to maintain frequency and reduce connecting times will be even harder. Moving 800 pax takes 2x B777 or 5x A320/B737, if the loads drop removing 1 B777 flight is a 50% capacity cut and a 2 hour connection turns into an 8 hour one whereas removing one narrowbody is a 20% cut with a much smaller increase in the transit time.
Various locations have risen to prominence and then fallen again as aircraft capabilities increased, Shannon Ireland was once a vital fuel stop for aircraft making the Atlantic crossing but was bypased as range increased.
Are the best days of the ME hubs now behind them with growth turning into a very slow decline ?