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Old 7th Jun 2020, 15:03
  #1091 (permalink)  
Hot 'n' High
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Here 'n' there!
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Originally Posted by AGBagb
Indeed. Pretty obviously the immediate cause of the 2nd crash was "technical": extensive damage to both engines during the earlier go-around........ a technical issue if ever there was one (and which will at least have techie folks looking at anything that could be done differently in engine design, even in these bizarre circumstances).....................
There! Fixed if for ya AGBagb!

Seriously, with hindsight, a real shame they managed to fly it out of the first "crash" which may have happened just before/just after the go-around was initiated - we'll find out IDC I guess. So the first "crash" seems likely, from what's been said so far, to be non-technically-induced and may have had a far higher survival rate had it played out to a stop on the ground. We await the Report of course for that.

As for the second "crash", and what could be done about it, I should think that risk will already have featured in Hazard Analysis work over many generations of engine designs and will probably be largely unaffected by this. If something is predicted to be once in gazillion flight hours, and it finally happens, means it's still a "once in gazilion flight hours" event. In theory, we'd not see this again for a gazillion hours. If folks were skating along runways on engine pods and getting airborne again on a weekly (or even a 10-yearly basis), then of course that means the initial likelyhood was underestimated so the probability would have to be increased. But that does not seem to be the case here.

Of course, it will be noted but I doubt it will change the design given the probability attributed to it will not change radically, if at all, and it's criticality will have been well known anyway. I'm sure the effects of that particular Hazard (sliding along on the pods) are well documented - but probably looking at the far, far more likely scenario of what would happen to the ancillaries and what risks they present (such as being a fire initiation source) during the slide-out to a stop aka Emirates at Dubai in 2016.

What a dreadful mess. H 'n' H
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