Originally Posted by
Asturias56
Seriously tho the critical question is are they ever likely to be involved in a medium to high level conflict in the next 40 -50 years - I can imagine a series of low level actions, and I can't see the UK in a high level conflict on it's own. Historically I'd guess the Falklands would be the classic example - so one in 70 years?
OK I’ll bite.
I agree the likelihood is very low. That of using an SSBN in anger is (one hopes) infinitely smaller but the consensus is the UK needs to maintain the deterrent. Surely HMG's job is to insure against the risk by having a range of credible capabilities. Frankly. if no British service(wo)man is put in harm’s way in that period I would be overjoyed but would still want us to have properly equipped armed forces. If history teaches us anything it is expect the unexpected and prepare for it.
As the House of Commons Defence select committee stated, the QEs cannot provide the ability to carry a full commando; never mind land and more importantly sustain it. Nor, as I understand, are they designed to have fully equipped marines running around. As the RAF does not have B-2 cost range assets, the running and refit cost of major naval units is always going to be the most vulnerable to HM Treasury and the amphibs are first on the list even at a quarter of the acquisition cost of a T45 due to 60% higher running costs and no other ships being dependent on them. Using amphibious capability efficiently needs airlift to get the boots on the ground and ships to enable consolidation.
I cannot find the quote at present but several decades ago a naval CDS was asked by a minister how many times UK amphibious capability had been used since WW2 and how many times it had been foreseen. I recall the answers as being 20+ and 1 (Suez as it was planned).
I hope we would all agree that a buy of multipurpose CMV-22s with the ‘Ro-Ro’ refuelling kits to fulfil both that role, COD, and potentially troop/equipment lift makes capability sense. The problem is convincing politicians to budget for acquisition and ongoing operating costs without the UK losing another equally or more important actual or potential capability. Now it will be even more unlikely post-C19.
On the good news front were the successful test firings of Wildcat mounted Martlet LMMs. Designed (amongst other things) to knock out naval threats from small ships and fast inshore attack craft and an air threat from light aircraft. If we are very lucky it might shut up some of the doom mongers regarding asymmetric threats to the carriers. (Don't think the trials have been mentioned here)