Originally Posted by
Anti Skid On
There'll be a load of narrow body jets that someone could buy up cheaply and set up a low cost carrier if COVID ever goes away
I have just had to book a business trip domestic from Florida to Dulles. All the airlines are acting as if getting pax back on the aircraft will be difficult and have reduced their flights to the level that most of the flights are already booked out. I think that the bounce back will be a
lot faster than the industry seems to be prepared for. There are several expert assessments that the SARS-CoV-2 virus may just stop. Indeed one vaccine manufacturer in UK says the race is to get a vaccine to human test stage before the cases drop too low to be useful for the test.
The population appears to have split into two groups - the type that would not get in an aircraft now and definitely not in the middle seat as the fear conditioning has been so well done; and, the type that has realized that 95% of the population appears to have innate immunity so do not expect to get sick, and want to fly and get back to working normally. The second type is already trying to fly and is actually being told
no flights available!! by the airlines that seem to be convinced that the panicked first group represent 100% of the population.
The first airline to get back to normal operations - perhaps with a mix of '
hypochondriac' flights and '
normal precautions' flights without blocked seats or masks to test the reaction - will become profitable again a lot faster than people expect. The demand for new aircraft will also pick up faster than expected. Provided paranoid politicians don't get in the way, international flights will also pick up rapidly as there is 'pent up demand'. Airlines should not think that recovery will take years this time next year with COVID-19 being rare,
demand could easily be back to normal.