Having read every msg in the thread and considered the information in the runway marks, and the distances between them (as I posted above) there seems little chance that the gear was down.
There would not appear to be enough time for the sequence of doors open / gear swing / doors closed. The lack of damage to the doors - as clearly seen - indicates the gear was stowed throught the first attempt.
For me, the most significant factor of the ATC recording is the shock in the voice from the flight deck, as they struggle to reach 2,000. They start with a routine readback of the GA and 3,500 and then begin to realise what the instruments (and ATC) are telling them.
Hopefully, FDR and CVR will, once again, tell the truth.