Fair enough hyg, but if they want rid of, say 500 pilots in line with other major airlines, I would suggest, at best 100 or even 200 will be tempted with what you call “very exciting voluntary deal”, if CX is capable of “exciting”. That still leaves 300 to 400 redundancies from the bottom.
Base closure would probably see more leave on the “exciting” deal as compared to having to relocate to HKG. But even then, they would still need to clear some from the bottom.