Originally Posted by
ElZilcho
And yet for those 2 months, the company did not revise their Pilot Redundancy numbers, and agreed to the AFFA as a means to reduce Redundancies as little as 2 weeks ago.
Greg Foran's latests communication changed the timeframe, but not the 70%. That is what they're sticking with and that is what Pilot Redundancies were based off. If Redundancies were based on the current flying schedule, 700+ would of gotten letters last week.
To approach this with a bit more common sense. In 3 months time (redundancy notice Period) the Airbus fleet will lose over half it's First Officers right as Domestic (and potentially Trans-Tasman) begin to pick back up. Under normal circumstances it takes approximately 3 months (Sim + Line training) to facilitate a fleet change. Obviously they can't have 100 Pilots training simultaneously. If they decide to take another swipe off the bottom, say 200 for example, that would be all the Airbus FO's gone, and probably a few Captains. The only fleet with much work on would be grounded.
I've said it countless times, and until proven wrong, I'll keep saying it. COVID-19 is a disaster, but it wont be solved with more redundancies. Pre-Covid, Jet Pilot wages made up approximately 17% of the Total Wage bill and ~4-5% of the total annual expenses. Redundancies have shaved off about $20M, while the AFFA will be closer to $30M (annualized). The AFFA savings are immediate while the Redundancies have yet to come into effect.
If Air NZ are serious about being 70% size (which Foran confirmed a few days ago, merely pushing it out to 2022), any Pilot Redundancies beyond those numbers will result in even more strain on the training department as Pilots get recalled and down-trained Pilots get another direction back up the list.
Those most Junior Pilots, post redundancy, are about 4 years in, so their redundancies wont be as cheap (unless of course they take Furlough). On average, I'd say another 200 Pilot redundancies would cost 6-7 months Pay (notice period + redundancy). The Company then run the risk of the remaining Pilots not agreeing to extend the AFFA, which is worth more in cost savings than Redundancies.
Don't get me wrong, COVID isn't over by a long shot, but the next battle wont be the Axe chopping another 200 off the bottom. It'll be the Company requesting an extension to the AFFA and/or more concessions the the CEA.
Credit where credit is due ElZilcho...
A coherent, sensible and well written few paragraphs of text there.
(Highly unusual to see this on this forum these days)...