Originally Posted by
Skipness One Foxtrot
I think you're re-writing history. BA changed their strategy at LGW by de-hubbing in the early 2000s.
They had never turned a profit and lost millions in the years since taking over Dan Air in their attempt to build a second complimentary London hub. Sadly it wasn't possible to maintain yields on the routes moved to LHR as they found the front cabins stayed too empty as that market remained at LHR, and worse, flew with their competitors. So all the European business connectivity was removed and BA downsized, allowing easyJet to gain a foothold. Without the high cost base of 2000AD BA, easyJet could turn a decent yield on European leisure routes, whereas BA couldn't even get close. It took another decade of slashing costs at BA to get their costs down to anything that could compete with EZY. Only then did BA LGW grow again, into sun markets mainly using ex BMI A319s and a ragtag fleet of second hand A320s.
The idea that BA should have stuck in there losing millions year in year out doesn't wash. The original rationale for BA LGW was replaced by a new business model which seems to have made them money, but crucially, BA have no need to dominate LGW. There was no ambition to be the dominant network carrier at the airport, much of BA's LGW operation is predicated on flying leisure routes where Exec Club frequent fliers can burn their AVIOS and make sure they fill the front cabins out of LHR in the next FY. They're not looking to catch up with easyJet, it's not that sort of competiton. If the LHR market collapses to some extent, and it will, BA may end up picking up even more slots and be able to maintain more of the LGW network out of LHR. All this talk of Vueling coming in sounds a lot like the hype of Norwegian coming building up a few years back. It wasn't a sustainable model.
Whilst I appreciate the history lesson, you've missed the point. By retrenching at Gatwick in the past, they allowed easyJet to build a huge operation at Gatwick that competes with BA across the entire London market. BA essentially cannot compete with them on cost without decimating their entire product - which is basically what they've done. The recent resurgence of BA's Gatwick operation isn't because they've suddenly realised that having five flights a day to Malaga is a money-spinner, it's attempting to halt the growth of easyJet at Gatwick whilst diluting their market share. Why do you think they were so desperate to get the Monarch slots? Because being about to operate two flights to Thessaloniki within 5 minutes of each other is profitable?
Gatwick is by far easyJet's largest and most important base and has been limited by nothing more than a lack of slots. BA know if they give up their 30+ pre-10am slots at Gatwick, they'll be eaten up by easyJet in no time and they'll never get them back. Even in times when easyJet aren't in expansion mode, they would use the more attractively timed BA slots in place of their earliest flights of the day (last summer up to 15 flights per day departed before 6am).
In my opinion, they will not let that happen. Any talk of a 'new normal' or 'things will never be the same' is a matter of personal opinion, because you know as much as I do how the market will look like in 2-5 years - and that's diddly squat.