I think QF will try to avoid costly redundancy pay outs. It just doesn't make sense right now when cash is king. They will instead use time to their advantage.
Firstly as per the latest FSO there is no training slots for the year.
737 will drop to minimum divisor, which also means no training can happen i.e. no one from LH can come over. If there is still a surplus here it will result in rotating stand downs and natural attrition.
As people hit the international retirement age of 65, they will be forced into retirement. 737 is no longer a plan B. LH numbers will reduce from natural attrition and some just throwing in the towel. Some will take LWOP and go elsewhere. Others will quit the industry all together.
330 and 787 will slowly pickup. Country by country at a time (the "travel bubble"). The 380 and 747 is done. Forget it. It sucks. Expect the 380s to be parked up somewhere. Maybe even with the Singapore 380s in Alice.
The interesting thing is what will happen to the excess 380 and 747 crew? A RIN? Further stand downs? Redundancy's off the tail end of the seniority list?
Again, I think Qantas will just buy themselves time. I can't see Qantas throwing all this cash at training and movements.
The company will eventually go to AIPA with some sort of offer on conditions to avoid redundancy, training movements, and allowances. It will go to a vote. If it gets voted down by the pilots, expect Qantas to submit a challenge in the courts to fight the RIN process in the EBA. They will argue it's not financially viable and will send the company into administration.
Interesting times.