Originally Posted by
pba_target
I'm getting quite bored of going around and finding myself having to point out the infection rate of COVID 19 in the general population, amongst other things. If you want some actual science check out the following:
.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html
For what it's worth, medical professionals all over the world generally don't call for the world to be shut down over flu. In one city with a decent spread of COVID before going in to lockdown (NYC) more than 19,000 are already dead and the hospitals just about ran out of capacity. I politely suggest you all go speak to any medic there (several of my family are) and ask them how closely COVID resembles flu. I'd wager they're more qualified to talk about it than anyone on an aviation forum.
Your article completely overlooks the fact that they are discovering that hordes more have had this than originally thought. CFR is not a useful indicator, unless you have had widespread community testing, which they have not in New York.
The issue is not lethality for the bulk of the populace. How many deaths in the UK from the under 70s with no chronic conditions in the UK? If you don't know, look it up. Yet we are still allowing over 70s to do supermarket visits and exercise in inner city areas. Why are we not locking down over 70s and vulnerable people in totality (and of course given support) and allowing the rest to carry on? Utter lunacy. Calling retired NHS workers back to frontline roles, whilst you know that 20% of over 70s catching this will be hospitalized? One of the most ill-thought out plans in this whole sorry experience.
The UK under 60s total fatality figure is 1400 at present, but includes those with known chronic conditions. However sad this figure is, is this fatality rate among the economically productive worth 2.4 billion a day in lost economic production, destruction of livelihoods, lives and the abject poverty this shutdown is going to cause? 10 billion a week in Redundancy prevention? The 1 in 5 small businesses that are never going to open their doors again? How many HS2 programmes could we have funded by the end of the month with all of that? Hip ops, cancer research funding, transplants, decent kit for the Army, Navy and Air Force? How many university grants for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? Utter, utter lunacy.
By the way, do you know how many working aged men committed suicide as a result of the post-2008 austerity programme and how many people died due to mental health issues and poverty? The "cure" is going to slaughter (albeit silently) multiples of the number that will be taken by Covid.
This is a pandemic. Its horrible. But they happen with surprising frequency. We are cratering our economy with impacts to not only current working age people but their children and possibly grandchildren. There will be far more deaths as a result of what we are doing to the country than what this virus is doing to its victims. The net gain is what exactly, mindful a targeted quarantine would provide much of the same effect?
Unfortunately, listening to a select quorum of professionals, such as Ferguson of Imperial has gotten us into this mess. His model lacking any international peer review is a joke among epidemiologists globally. We are too focused on saving every life, rather than minimizing the impact in the medium long term. When did we last have an economist presenting the impact to the public purse from this flight of folly on the 5 P.M. brief?
Also, want to explain where the exponential growth in cases and deaths is in Stockholm, with a higher population density than London have gone? Something is not right with the model, because guess what? they used the Flu transmission model for this virus. NNo one knows how it spreads, yet we chose the most destructive path out of fear. And why? Well, Corona is comparable to Ebola, according to many national newspapers as of two days ago. The wanton fear mongering that caused mass panic in not only this country, but also globally, lead to governments to soil their pants and jump onboard the biggest collective self frag of this century. The Case Fatality rate has fallen consistently from the initial prediction and is now shown across a number of case studies, including the 1/10 of what Ferguson used in his deeply flawed and internationally picked apart model. Do we see this widely televised? Laura Kunesberg fess up that we got it all a but wrong on aunt Beeb? Nope, they dont do that do they? There is going to be a whole load of egg on peoples faces when the wash up is done.
Global flu deaths on average are around 389,000 people per year. The upper range for a bad year is 660,000
Flu We aren't past the lower figure yet for the supposed doomsday virus, 5 months into the year, with the first cases occurring in late 2019. This isn't a global crisis of health, its a global crisis of leadership and communication.
In terms of qualification, I've had it, family have had it, no worse for 2 of 4 than mild flu. Wife had 0 symptoms but had detectable viral load. I had it the worst and was laid up for 2 weeks with no sense of smell, excessive tiredness but was back in and signed up to fly 3 weeks after I showed first symptoms. I was almost disappointed. at the operational level, sure, its different. For the 99.7% of healthy people under the age of 70 not wanting to get the Scanning Electron Microscope or protein test out,symptomatically its pretty much flu. Im one of 20 at my work who has had it - therefore more like 200-300 who have actually had it.