Yup, I’m with nozzle lover and Mr Vice too.
Pre CV-19, the holds were starting to come down where those joining now might go from ‘zero to hero’ in less than 5 years. Just what CV-19 means now for recruiting times, with OASC currently closed and flying training at reduced rates, remains to be seen. I expect a 4-6 month slip on times. The 7 years for someone joining right now, is still very unlikely. Remember, those that have just taken 7 years joined in 2012/2013 when we were just recovering from one of the most brutal, austerity driven, defence reviews ever. We made 170 student pilots redundant in 2011 following SDSR10, and those lucky enough to escape redundancy held for 2+ years before starting.
All parts of Pilot UKMFTS are now working - some slightly below full capacity - but they are working. There are also moves afoot to increase capacity with the enhancements authorised from SDSR15. So, if I were a betting man right now, IOT to the Front Line for a FJ stude should be possible inside 5 years and getting closer to 4 for some.
For rotary, the passage hasn’t been smooth either. But it is now much better and getting better each day. The serviceability of the Juno is well above that expected. I would guess around 4 years for a Rotary mate.
For ME then there are now 2 pathways - one via MFTS and the other via an outsource route. For someone joining now, I would expect 3 years or maybe less if they are lucky.
It isn’t perfect, but there are improvements all of the time in all streams. There is also much work being done for further improvements in capacity.