Im afraid the recovery for aviation will be slower than most think. It will depend greatly on how long it takes countries to open their international borders because only this will signify that the pandemic is over. And who (no pun intended) honestly thinks any country is going to open their borders to China soon, after all the deceit they have engaged in to date.
The virus is still spreading wildly in the US and has yet to peak in many countries around our region (Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia - all popular tourist destinations for Australians).
Even Singapore and Japan are still on the up curve. So international isolation is not going to end any time soon.
When Australian states do open their borders and domestic travel begins again it’s not going to be a case of just rock on down to the airport and get on a flight to Cairns or Alice Springs or wherever. The social distancing thing is here to stay for now so expect a myriad of checks and procedures for your average punter to get on an aircraft.
My feeling is a lot of people will either be too scared or too f@&cked off to bother flying (assuming anyone has any money).
Then it’s possible the centre seats in each isle will be blocked for social distancing. Tell me any airline that made a meaningful profit with a permanent 33% of seats blocked - even assuming all the available remaining seats could be sold. It could be done but not with discount fares. Without discount fares who will be able to afford air travel.
So with all these highly likely limitations, how can anyone believe there will be a rapid V shaped recovery for aviation. Sorry for the negativity but facts are facts.
Last edited by DHC8 Driver; 28th Apr 2020 at 14:41.