Originally Posted by
YellowFever777
What on earth are you basing your numbers on? Post 2008 the markets went on the longest bull run in history. This pandemic has been a black swan event for the world economy because we were woefully underprepared for it, however just like the crash of 2008 this too will pass.
Because it's not an economy problem alone like in 2008. The economy disaster happens on top of a very natural one.
As long as there is no cure for the root of all this evilness, traveling around the world will remain a risk and thus limited. While the recovery potential is definitely there, many states won't allow unlimited global travel for a while, at least a year is a good guess, maybe even longer.
I certainly don't have the answers but I am certainly more optimistic of a medium term recovery, trying to predict 15 years out from now is insanity. The vacuum created by the airlines that have gone bust will be filled by new airlines or expanding surviving airlines.
15 years is indeed a bit pessimistic, with that I would agree. It could take 1-2 years until we have a working vaccine, after then it should be possible to resume more or less unlimited air travel, but it won't happen instantly. Up to 5 years from now is a good guess.
No matter how you view it, it's a major disaster and the airline industry is probably hurt much more than any other business branch except maybe general tourism.