Originally Posted by
EIFFS
If we were BC (before Coronavirus) I would have said that Norwegian had a slightly better than evens chance of trading to longer term profitability and paying down it debt pile.
PC (Post Coronavirus) and we aren't anywhere near PC I just don't see how Norwegian can dodge this bullet shy of state aid on a massive scale, having said that its worth remembering that Norwegian was historically structured in such away that dead limbs could be cut off thus protecting the core (K area) The Norwegian Government will not be keen on a total collapse of the Norwegian brand or the loss of tax revenue from well paid employees in Norway.
I just can't see anyway the Government of Norway will or should bail out the entire group, so my best guess is that they will underwrite a chapter 11 style of restructuring which will be an Oslo centric operation (wasn't it always thus) flying short haul MAX & NG aircraft across Europe with few if any European bases, this new Norwegian will be largely state owned and will be re privatised in 3-5 years
If I recall the LGW slots were monetised and used for loan security so may well be called in but they are probably of little value now.
Anybody who thinks that in a few months it will be all over and business as normal is delusional, this year is a write off for the travel industry especially long haul at least until a vaccine is available to all and I can't see that before 2021
When airlines can fly again it will be Ryanair out of the blocks first with ultra low fares and will use its massive cash reserves to buy market share and push weakened companies to the wall.
So we wait for the 4th of May
I've a sneaky feeling they might get away with this and I kind of hope so.
The sad thing is a lot of Norwegian pilots have done their last flight for Norwegian, but don't yet realise it.