Originally Posted by
myturn
I got smashed earlier for suggesting that the airline may ultimately end up being 30% of its current size and that the redundancy expectations might be a little optimistic. Right or wrong I stand by that and frankly it may be coming to fruition given the actual reality of the situation (as much as we all like to ignore that). But Im just wondering could the company take the opportunity to place itself in voluntary liquidation and simply set aside existing creditors and more importantly unfavourable union agreements etc? Genuine question and I dont know the answer, Lets face it there is more at stake here than just the pilots who will ultimately become one of the the biggest cost going forward if this doesn't get this sorted.
Well that's the thing, the only way I can see Air NZ becoming 30% size is if we do go into liquidation... but if that happens we'll become an SOE and I'm sure the Government will want to be larger than 30% for international freight (the borders will open
eventually).
Don't get me wrong, this could end up snowballing, but if it does, I can't see anyone being able to put the brakes on at 30%, we'll be in terminal freefall if things get that bad (which they could). Staff are easily gotten rid of (sadly), but the Aircraft and
infrastructure required to operate at our pre-COVID Capacity cannot be so easily disposed of in the current climate. Half of the 777's we own and are currently worth nothing... couldn't give them away. The others are leased which will require maintenance for the exit lease conditions.
My crystal ball says, we'll either be ~70% of the size in the post COVID recovery (the current plan) or we won't exist.... Air New Zealand 2.0 will be an SOE after the fire sale and burning of contracts. Neither option is ideal.