Lockdown cannot continue indefinitely because COVID-19 is the immediate but not the only health consideration out there. An A&E Doctor at Addenbrookes noted in a TV interview that admissions for heart attacks and strokes had halved from normal levels. Have people stopped suffering from these critical conditions, or is it that they'd rather take their chances at home than risk catching C-19 in hospital? Cancer diagnoses are well down. Has there been a miracle cure? Or could it be that diagnostic consultations are compromised by the lockdown? And then we have the cumulative health impacts of cancelled elective surgeries - those operations are needed for a reason. And within lockdown itself, mental health challenges surging. Depression, stress, suicidal tendencies, loneliness, domestic violence, self-harm, alcoholism, substance abuse, overeating, inactivity. There are two sides to this equation, and there comes a tipping point where the lost life-years from "everything else" outweighs the toll from C-19 (which predominantly claims victims from those in end-of-life care or with low life-expectancy remaining due to other health issues). Yes, every life is precious. But that includes those being compromised by the lockdown itself. And don't forget that death rates rise in periods of economic recession ... and I suspect what we should really call this period is an economic DEpression.
So eventually, political leaders will have to make a judgement call. And their decision won't be universally popular. Because it will mean increasing the risk to life towards one group in order to ease risk to life for others. I suspect the way they will have to go will be to continue lockdown for the elderly and those with critical health impairments whilst lifting restrictions for everyone else. And many in those vulnerable groups will remain in voluntary lockdown mode whatever the government says they're allowed to do.
And as for the airline industry, what are the prospects there? Well, I count myself amongst the keenest of air travellers and I'm in no rush to take reckless chances. How will more nervous travellers react?
FWIW, my own concerns aren't about catching C-19 aboard an airliner. And measures such as leaving middle seats empty are cosmetic only (Michael O' Leary is absolutely correct on this).
But these are the concerns which make me wary of booking more flights until things become much clearer:
- When I pass through airport formalities with luggage and join the stuffy security queue I inevitably perspire - those perspiration-detector bodyscanners get me every time! Does that mean I'd show an elevated temperature if spot-checked? Would I be refused boarding? Inconvenient outward, devastating on a homeward flight.
- Would I risk being ordered into 14 days of quarantine at destination whether healthy or not? With nobody around to help me?
- Will visitor attractions, restaurants, bars, museums, swimming pools, beaches etc. be closed at my destination of choice? Will there be public transport or taxis available?
- If restaurants are open, will I be asked to leave if spicy food makes my nose run as usual? (Apologies for that lovely image).
- Will I be barred from entering countries unless I can show an immunisation certificate?
- Will a foreign visitor from a perceived 'high-risk' country be made to feel welcome by the host population?
- Will there be any local sightseeing excursions running? Will there be any sporting events, festivals, exhibitions, concerts, theatre productions, conferences to attend? Theme parks? Water parks?
- Will my foreign travel be covered by insurance?
For these reasons, my own inclination is to stick with travel within the British Isles until things become clearer. I had thought the mainstream Spanish resorts might be an early option, but they're now talking of shutdown through to year-end. I'm not afraid of the plane ... love that bit! But my choice of destination is likely to be limited to DUB, BFS, NQY, INV, JER, IOM or similar until I can discount the risk of becoming stranded abroad. And if I - who had 49 flights booked going into this Summer - feel like this, how quickly will those who just 'tolerate' flying return?
And as for cruise-lines ... I note that the main UK brands have scrapped sailings for most of the Summer now. Not good at all.