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Old 19th Apr 2020, 15:35
  #360 (permalink)  
737lpa
 
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Paul737,

Scandinavia has already turned their back to norwegian except for Norway, which is also placing very difficult conditions in order to get a loan guarantee of €250 million, which is not anywhere near what's needed in order to weather this storm out with their current debt levels of almost €8,000 million. That's not to say that Scandinavia, or any other region in the world, can get 80 or whichever amount of aircraft from the market (including a bankrupt norwegian on liquidation) and put a new company up if they see fit. But closing all the bases in norwegian, downzizing fleets, decommissioning their LH ops and firing all its employees abroad without filing for bankruptcy will already be more expensive than the loan from Norway. If creditors don't believe in the current norwegian, the new norwegian will have to start from scratch after liquidation, as it's happened before in many airlines (air berlin, etc...).

Scandinavian bases are not an asset, except for Scandinavian countries. For any money making business, Scandinavian countries are expensive because their living standards are very high and their welfare system is well above average, not to mention their tax rates, social security entitlements, small catchment areas, little touristic interest for foreigners and poor traffic figures in general. That's why the predominant carriers are mostly state owned like Finnair and SAS, which on top of everything is loss making and has been for decades and which has been rescued multiple times, including now. If norwegian goes bust, only a loss making state run company like SAS will have bases in Scandinavia. I doubt that Noway or any other country will be in a rush to set up another company with public money to compete against SAS, and the other possibility left will be that RYR, or similar, will take whatever part of the business they see fit, and with the employment conditions that they see fit, including basing their crews well away from Scandinavia.

Surely aircraft lessors would have been talking to RYR about their chances of placing their grounded aircraft, but I think there is much more interest in their B787 fleet for the fact that it would open new markets and it's a very demanded aircraft right now, than their B737īs, for which there are plenty more of opportunities after the MAX fiasco and their associated cancellations. Besides, remember that RYR has already huge amounts of B737 coming their way.

Again, we're all entitled to our opinion, and we will soon find out what the final outcome is. One way or the other, aviation will overcome this crisis like it has in the past. but it will take some time...


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