Originally Posted by
737lpa
What's next, either:
1.- Bondholders and creditors agree to CEO Jacobīs plan by Apr 30th to swap (most of) their debt into equity, leaving norwegian with a decent balance sheet in order to survive the crisis, obtain further loans from Norway or other lenders and restart operations in a gradual manner when conditions permit. This can only happen if creditors believe in norwegian as a global business and are obviously pressured by the fact that by not accepting the offer, they're left with either loosing most of their money in bankruptcy proceedings, or recovering assets which are very hard to place right now (acft, slots, hangars...). This option would be the best for all employees as norwegian will pretty much remain more or less the same (although with a reduced size initially and some adjustment to their business while demand recovers). This would also be the preferred option for Norway, as they would keep an important global player with their brand, keep Norway connected to the world, save thousands of norwegian jobs and tax revenue for both company and staff, and still leave the door open to a partial nationalisation of a much healthier airline. Current shareholders would be diluted to almost nothing, but still better than nothing.
2.- Bondholders and creditors do no trust the business plan and prefer to take the risk of repossessing their assets and try to place them somewhere else despite the current turmoil. Norway then would not likely come to the rescue, as norwegian would not be worth saving as itīs simply too big and saddled with enormous debt. The company would then go into bankruptcy proceedings. Norway will then get some of the regional 737 operation at liquidation prices by reopening a much smaller norwegian or similar and rescuing most of their local norwegian jobs. Shareholders will lose everything and RYANAIR will come in and buy the long haul operation for peanuts, something they're very good at, probably even keeping the brand if the price is right, or else redeploying elsewhere where money is to be made with brand new B787, slots, and a market where only a few players will be left to compete. He did it in 9/11 and he'll do it again now. Many employees will also be rescued as the operation is ready to go, albeit with diminished conditions.
Either way, those who believe that the current norwegian will be saved by either creditors or Norway to become a much smaller regional company based in Oslo are either:
a.- Dreaming.
b.- Small shareholders that have not accepted their fate and who think their country would rescue them regardless.
c.- Die hard norwegian citizens that believe that they will keep their non-stop services to LAX and JFK from their hometowns even though Scandinavia simply doesn't have the catchment area or critical mass to make money in long haul and also cannot attract enough tourists to make it profitable.
I truly hope for the first option...
It`s funny to see how Norwegian employees try to justified or believe bondholders and creditors must agree with Jacob`s plan or they will loose everything based on factors such as there is no place where to put aircrafts, slots (Gatwick),... and then think about a quick market recovery and be profitable.
I understand you don't want to loose your job and base, but thinking creditors believe in norwegian as a global business is being a dreamer. Have you considered for a second that maybe the companies will be interested in replacing older 737/767/330/... with cheaper second hand 737/787? I can easily see Ryanair taking lots of Norwegian`s 737. And thinking Ryanair will come and buy the super profitable long haul operation is simply madness.
How is Norwegian going to be profitable in this market where the lessors, bondholders, creditors will loose everything if they don't accept Jacob's plan and there is no place for those aircrafts? There is no market where to put those aircrafts but there is market for Norwegian to keep them flying?