Originally Posted by
Less Hair
The summer season is lost. So winter will be the earliest to see some tiny recovery in demand. This thing will take some years to buff out for sure. Aircraft manufacturing rates will tell us a lot about the industry's recovery assumptions. GE cut the engine production by half already.
Winter the airlines have to many pilots always, so assume rest of this year lost, assume another few thousands of pilots loosing their jobs in Europe, Asia and Middle East, in addition to FlyBe, Thomas Cook now recently.
2021 will be very hard for any new guys to get a job. All the guys on courses have had they courses frozen, and expect a lot to hire unemployed guys first, through various union agreements. 2022 is the earliest, and that is being extremely optimistic of the aftermath of this current situation. Sit tight, hold on to your cash.
Expect house price crash, negative equality, millions defaulting on their mortgages, rent etc., because unprecedented number of people all over the world are loosing their jobs and their income.
Travel will not be the priority for most when the economy starts to open up.
I know guys few days before their command courses just got stopped, guys working their notice periods in their current company getting told by their new company that contract was cancelled, back in the hold pool for unknown time. People with job interviews lined up, all just stopped up, within few days notice. It has been brutal out there in the world of aviation, and it's going to get worse over the next few months unfortunately.