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Old 14th April 2020 | 02:05
  #54 (permalink)  
Richard Dangle
 
Joined: Nov 2019
Posts: 129
Likes: 0
From: Scotland
Ironically Pprune is probably about the worst place to get advice about a career in commercial aviation right now, simply because most posters will be posting through emotion rather than rationality - they would lack humanity if they were not, because many on here are deeply attached to flying and will be in bits at what is happening right now...especially those whose mortgage currently depends on it, and my heart goes out to them.

There is far too much speculation as to what the future holds, especially as we are probably months away (2021) before any sort of normality returns to global commercial aviation and people are only guessing at the likely outcomes before we get going again, let alone afterwards. But I think it is inevitable that economics will not be the only factor in play. Globally the world will prepare for the next Covid or some such, so going forwards there is going to be some form of stringent medical border control, where currently there is very little (usually none). This will inevitably make international borders less porous than they were/are and significantly add to the costs of international travel.

It is also inevitable that business travel (not just air travel, all of it) will hugely reduce. This was happening anyway; Covid 19, has jammed the foot down on the gas pedal and then some. This is not speculation it is commercial business reality and it will spread to all sectors.

And before any of this was happening , there was an embryonic youth demographic emerging against the enviromental consequences of flying...that's not gone away, and that's tomorrows passengers we are talking about. As my boss puts it...flying is just not cool anymore.

I have no idea what commercial aviation will look like post Covid 19 and I doubt many people do. But I'm comfortably certain of two things:

1. We are not going back to what we had before.
2. Comparisons with previous events, not matter how dramatic, offer very few clues as to how this one will turn out.

My advice to prospective students wanting to enter the industry. Unless you or your parents have money to burn, now is not the time. And it fills me with sadness to say that, but anything else is hardly rational.
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