Originally Posted by
non_state_actor
Yes that is the risk they are taking. I guess they have to decide if an opportunity to capture the Australian market is worth it. I'd bet a small wager that Singapore would also push for access to the Pacific for them as well as they are in a very strong bargaining position and something they have coveted for a eternity.
The Pacific route isn't that 'high yielding' as it used to be. Especially during the era when there was 3 cartels on this route QF/AA, DL/VA and UA.
Post COVID-19 may possibly see it go back to QF and UA again, with the former concentrating primarily on LAX and DFW with their JV partner AA codesharing, and UA retreating to SFO.
The Australian Government isn't likely to budge on 5th freedom rights. SQ's application was declined by both Australia and the USA's DoT.
I remember that even though the US DoT approved AC's 5th freedom application, the Australian authority decided to decline AC's application on the route in the late 90s when AC proposed YYZ-LAX-SYD as an alternative to SQ's SIN-SYD-LAX.