Originally Posted by
krismiler
I think we can stop using the word "recession", once the lights go back on we'll realise we're in a depression like we've never seen before. Recovery will be like the aftermath of a major war and there won't be a strong United States to bail Australia out. The lockdown can only last for so long, it won't eliminate COVID-19 and enable us to walk out our front doors into a virus free world. However with everyone now taking precautions that they weren't taking in the early days it might be enough to break the back of the pandemic and reduce it to a manageable level. People will keep getting infected and some will die but hopefully at a rate that the health system can cope with.
The easing of the lockdown will be gradual and in measured stages, we ground to a halt fairly quickly but the return to normality will take a lot longer. Domestic flights will be the first to resume but at a greatly reduced rate as the demand simply won't be there. International will take longer due to dearer flights and much of the world being off limits eg Africa and India won't be able to bring the virus under control in the same way that New Zealand and South Korea have.
Many QF international destinations are direct routes and with Australia not being a hub, QF will be far less impacted than Emirates who will lose substantial portions of their network for a long time and be avoided by passengers who won't want to mix with people from multiple countries when changing aircraft. In the early stages EK may have to operate SYD - LHR with the same aircraft and pax load with the stop in Dubai simply to change crew and refuel. This could build up to limited transfers involving safe countries in a separate terminal after a while, but the major hub operation will take a long time to return. Much of QFs international network is to countries which are likely to be able to recover from the outbreak within a reasonable time. The loss of Africa won't be that important for QF but it will be highly significant for EK. The partner/competitor will be nobbled, QF and BA could be the preferred airlines on the kangaroo route, just like the old days.
The wave hit first in East Asia and this region will likely be the first to recover, a holiday or business travel to Australia may be a better option than Europe or the USA for Chinese, Japanese and Koreans with health certificates.
which major war? Because both world wars had polar opposite recoveries.
ww1 was followed by recession
ww2 recovery is also called the “golden age of capitalism”