Let’s face it everyone, nobody has any idea what will happen, there are just too many variables. Jetstar in Oz and NZ has a lower cost base so could be cheaper to run and will limit losses, although they are primarily leisure airlines which may or may not be the last domestic market to come back to life. When redundancy is needed it will be cheaper in the short term to cut Jetstar pilots but in the long term cheaper for cost to weaken the mainline group. Maybe Joyce can be taken at face value when he says he wants to retain everyone as many are saying recovery of most operations will happen within 5 years. Remember how they were struggling to find pilots, if China has beaten this thing then it won’t be long before their airlines will be wanting people back. Emirates is already starting some limited flying again and will no doubt be straight back in the air when a vaccine is found or international travel starts again. I am sure that airlines like Qantas do not others to get the jump on them, on the other hand they have said they will only increase flights as demand dictates so they may dribble capacity back into the system. Maybe they will shut the whole thing down. Air NZ’s apparent plan to make so many redundant will take 18 months to action with the amount of down training required, this will be a a huge cost and will probably be finished just in time to start recruitment again, maybe Qantas thinks that LWOP is the answer as they expect to need everyone back. The last airline I took voluntary redundancy from during the GFC stated it was required due to the outlook and there would be no recruitment for between 2-5 years, I had only been gone 8 months when they contacted me asking if I wanted to come back, so who the hell knows.