I doubt anyone knows (even the academics who specialise in public health) know how COVID-19 is going to play out. It sure makes it interesting betting the sheep station at the big table. Consider the following possibilities:
- Until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available (if it ever does) or herd immunity is reached, any international travel into AU will require a quarantine period (of some description) at journey’s end. Unless there is a pressing reason (business or personal), this will make international travel unattractive for most.
- It is possible that the current AU public health directions will result in the COVID-19 being contained and supressed, without the development of any AU herd immunity. If one listens to the entire briefings of various Federal and State representatives, the words “six months” keeps being repeated. This indicates September 2020 at the earliest. It is possible that Governments will slowly remove domestic travel restrictions. Key word is “slowly”. Expect incremental step, watch what happens, then another incremental step. However, any flare up will trigger a new lock down.
- Non-business travellers (including the bogans) will have taken a big hit to their free cash. Until the economy recovers, suppressed demand. Factor in higher tax take (which will dry up household free cash) for the next decade to pay off the COVID-19 government debt.
- Business travel will be watched closely. Not for costs, but for possible cross contamination of the office. Expect travel approver to ask, “do you really need to travel to location X”. Sales droids, show ponies, and those who seek self-esteem by obtaining frequent flyer miles will always find a good excuse. All others will defer if possible. Until vaccine is available, expect suppressed business travel, even inside AU.
- Keep in mind that containment and suppression strategies are applying selection pressure on COVID-19. Only the strong survive, and this seems to be applying to COVID-19 S type.
- The current AU government is unpredictable and not running to type (mainly in a good way).