Originally Posted by
Buster Hyman
As I posted on another thread, JQ to take the lions share of Domestic & QF going back to mainly INTL flying. My 2c.
Really?
In the short term I predict almost the opposite.
In the early stages of the recovery, I predict very little JQ domestic, and QF INTL flying will remain at the skeleton freight/govt subsidised level.
Do you think JQ will pick up because Jack and Shazza missed out on their Easter Gold Coast apartment booking, and they might get to re-use their credit in September? Do you think the $89 credit that Jetstar is withholding from Jack and Shazza is going to hold up the business so they can shut down QF mainline?
QF domestic wiill increase in accordance with demand based on relaxations to business travel, not leisure. That is why JQ will not recover as quickly as QF domestic. Look, I think both will recover equally in the end, really, but I think business will lead the charge.
For example, I predict that one of the first relaxations will be that for example a Mining Engineering Consultant from Melbourne will be allowed to finally visit their minesite project in QLD that they were supposed to inspect 2 weeks ago until they suddenly weren’t allowed to. These jobs aren’t going away, they are building up while the poor sods in charge of serious jobs they are responsible for are supposedly working from home. With every day, these companies are losing more millions, and they won’t tolerate it for long. These will be the first people to be “relaxed” in a gradual wind-down of Covid-19 protection measures, and they are the high-value clients of Qantas domestic. Not Jetstar, sorry. They pay $500 for a ticket, not $50.
I suggest that the pent-up demand in business travel required by those who actually have and would need to travel to get this economy happening again will surprise even Qantas. There is only so much you can do on Skype when you have a multi-million dollar project happening in another state, which is only stalled on the basis of the whim of a government official, and could be revoked next week, next month, 3 months, next year, who knows?