Originally Posted by
krismiler
That's a real possibility if Virgin go under and no one steps into the gap. In exchange for being the only premium airline QF might be happy to be rid of it and concentrate on the full service market with the higher yielding pax which is what they know. Jetstar don't really fit into the QF/EK/Oneworld mafia anyway.
Consolidation will be the name of the airline game in the post COVID-19 world and whilst Singapore Airlines are likely to come through because of strong government backing, their traditional premium and business traveller market will be decimated. Picking up an established Australian low cost operation at a depressed price and merging Jetstar Asia into Scoot would give them a strong showing in the Asia Pacific low cost arena which is likely to be the only growth area for a long time. Singapore lacks a domestic network which its rivals enjoy, this ultimately caps Scoot at around 50 airframes. A combined Scoot+Jetstar+Jetstar Asia fleet would be around 140 aircraft and quite capable of taking on the currently much larger Air Asia and Cebu Pacific competitors. Call the whole thing Scoot and effectively Australia would be Singapore's domestic backyard.
Buying an established operation, which already complies with Australian rules, operates the same types as your subsidiary and isn't encumbered with billions of dollars of debt like Virgin makes more sense than a new start up like Tiger Australia did. There is already considerable Singaporean investment in Australia, and with QF and SIA being major rivals, the ACCC should be satisfied that competition would be maintained. Sometimes strange partnerships emerge such as SIA, Virgin, Etihad and Air New Zealand.
The above scenario may seem a little imaginative but isn't outside the realms of possibility in the interesting times that we are currently in.
While an interesting scenario, let's keep in mind that SIA has a dismal record at operating in Australia overall through equity.
Strike 1: Air New Zealand group (including Ansett). 25% stake in NZ after then-Chairman & MD Selwyn 'Borghetti' Cushing used his veto rights to block SQ from buying News Corp's 50% stake in AN. SIA's stake in NZ ended during the Ansett bankruptcy debacle
Strike 2: Tiger Airways Australia. Even with SIA owning that former subsidiary through Tiger Airways Holdings, they still managed to screw that up with the maintenance debacles, "selling to VA for $1" to save face on their own incompetence.
Strike 3: Virgin Australia. Participating in the Capacity War & CapEx failures in cahoots with Etihad and Borghetti. Air New Zealand also played a minor role through participating in the Capacity War before then-CEO Luxon realised the situation, tried to change the situation but was outnumbered by EY and SQ, and subsequently decided to sell out of VA while NZ had the chance.
If SIA couldn't get their 3 goes in Australia right, there's very little chance of SIA getting a "4th go" right.