Originally Posted by
asdf1234
Back on topic. I've said it previously here, there will be massive pent up demand supported by lots of unspent cash. Once the CV is beaten life will return to normal and the airlines will be flying the hordes as per usual. The only concern is whether Stobart can ride out the storm as owners of SEN. The airport will still be there no matter who ends up owning it.
Demand - maybe but unspent cash? People have less money in their pockets and spending beyond essentials is at a near standstill crippled by uncertainty. It would take a lot of confidence to see an instant return to pre-Covid levels of activity and I am not seeing that level of optimism to be honest.
It would require all airlines and support companies to come out the end in exactly the same state as they were in before this began which however desirable feels unlikely. This morning the environmental lobby began their assault on the industry which may delay any government intervention (if any were coming which is seemingly less likely at the moment but who knows.)
My expectation is that demand will be lower but that supply will be too. If they remain balanced then the industry resets to this new lower benchmark and growth restarts from there but we won’t see 2019 traffic levels for several years to come (if ever.)
If supply exceeds demand, cheap fares abound and airlines go bust.
If demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Not popular with the travelling public who have grown accustomed to cheap air travel but might keep the green lobby happy by default.
This is basic market economics but clearly the outcome could and on a global level almost certainly will be affected by government intervention.
Which means any outcome is still possible and I personally am no closer to figuring out what our industry will look like this time next year!!
Whatever the outcome sadly I doubt we will see the taps turned back on with growth continuing unabated from 2019 levels.