Originally Posted by
PoppaJo
The guys in Singapore, Vietnam or Japan won’t have choice. No Union No Choice.
Jetstar Asia will probably slash Pilot Remuneration considerably. Expect 10 or 20% cuts. Tiger Singapore did this about a decade ago, didn’t go down well, but the industry didn’t crash, just high fuel prices. As the market was relatively stable and big twin jobs were available, they lost half the captains almost instantly.
Back then, you cut pilot wages and everyone walked and went to Qatar or Emirates. Management will be well aware that there isn’t many jobs for those to escape to now, so the wider group will just have to suck it up.
I have been talking to many who say they hope their company will ask for Voluntary Redundancies, as they are 2-3 years away from retiring, but it’s going to be a slow and miserable last few years of the career, so take the cash and run.
Obviously they can’t chop and change current agreements here as such, but I imagine it would be more culling, than attempting to change conditions. Eg. Jetstar entire 787 fleet parked, sold and pilots made redundant. The long haul leisure market is the pain point, Air Asia X is probably finished. They could barely pay their leases last month according to some reports. Scoot will be the long term survivor, although I might be nervous if I was on the 787 there.
I think it's more likely the JQ 787s will go to QF, who will offload the A330-200s. If the downturn is that severe, they may be able to get rid of all the A330s and with the 747s gone it will be a mainline A380, 787, 737 fleet, with perhaps the A350 coming in to do Sunrise if it goes ahead and replacing the A380 sooner rather than later if the one-stops are as profitable as PER-LHR.
Of course, the problem will be who will want to buy the A330s and A380s. This could offer the opportunity for a post-Covid write-down of their value and some tax breaks.