Originally Posted by
anothertyke
Until we have random sampling stratified by location, age and gender we cannot possibly know where we are with this thing. First requirement for an exit strategy is to know where you are.
I agree. It's true we're still very much in the "information gathering" stage, but things are slowly starting to crystallize. I doubt many governments in March felt confident enough to risk their population by choosing between the mild/extremely-widespread and dangerous/containable theories, so most opted for acting as if the latter was true. The main thing the lockdowns have bought us is time to learn more, and to work out how best to defeat - or live with - this thing.
As more extensive PCR testing (in some places) and now antibody testing starts to come online, things are steadily going to become a lot clearer. Likewise with the treatment results from various developed-economy hospital systems, with their typical populations. Whether good, bad or indifferent.
With that information, governments will start trying to figure out ways to come out of severe lockdowns while they still have viable economies - but without killing off significant chunks of their populations and laying waste to their health systems. Unfortunately, the data that's accumulating suggests it's not going to be the easiest scenarios.
Honestly, I don't think it would have been possible to develop, let alone publish an exit strategy before now. And now is probably still a little too soon for any plan to be solid. So for a while yet there's going to be a lot more uncertainty and improvisation than any of us are used to, or happy to tolerate.
But this is 2020 and this is the world we live in. And because we're human, hence very adaptable, and because we have no choice, we'll adapt.