Originally Posted by
TOM100
I also read another lucky fluke for UK is the unintended consequences of Brexit preparation was some food and other supply chain stockpiling of goods.............
Afraid that is way far from the truth. Stockpiling hasn't been happening in food industry because most food producers barely make money and cannot afford to have millions tied up in stock.
On previous discussions on JB I indicated supply chain to supermarkets had 3-4 days maximum supply on chilled, a bit more on frozen and 10 days on ambient. Tesco (as an example) order on 2nd Jan on say a monday morning and it is in store by Wednesday, sold by Friday and the manufacturer will be paid at end of March after the retailer has taken lots of debit notes and discounts decided by it from the invoices. Manufacturer would have got the stock in during November / December and in many cases paid for it by mid January. Tesco will give you 13 weeks (often less) notice of delisting products or range refreshes as they call it.
I figured it would be 2 weeks before retailers had lots of stock in, it was pretty much bang on, supply chain is fuller, shelves are full a couple of times a day and manufacturers are working flat out with retailers putting in mega orders but will accept whatever is sent.
The scummy screwing of suppliers has changed because they now realise suppliers are just surviving, Aldi pay day delivered, they and Lidl are the best to deal with even before this, the others have changed their terms massively.
One supplier to a major supermarket, still awaiting payment of a massive amount from October (big 6 figures) where retailer queried every invoice claiming 1 case missing per delivery to not pay any invoices. Supplier told the retailer that all production was focusing on a competitor because of massive non payment, retailer said you will never deal with us again and got told ok that is fine. 2 hours board director of retailer called and asked how much was outstanding, 1 hour later all outstanding cash was in the suppliers bank with all queries no longer an issue.
The "Key workers" on production line are 80% migrant labour, predominantely on minimum wage or just above and a bit like what is in the media about how farmers will struggle because nobody is around to pick the crops.
Food shortages haven't yet happened but when you think summer produce comes from Italy and Spain, Chicken from Thailand and Vegetables etc from East Africa then have a look at what is happening there.