Originally Posted by
ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE
I agree about the recovery.
It will be sluggish domestically but even if it does come back strongly both Qantas and Jetstar will have surplus wide body aircraft (JQ 11 787s, Qantas 40ish A330s and 787s) that can fill the void, as I’m sure no one doubts that international will take quite a bit longer to come back (50 wide bodies would be around the same capacity as virgins 77 narrowbodies).
looking beyond the 18-24 month mark, JQ alone have 18 A321LRs due which could be used for growth to fill the domestic vacuum as international demand comes back, I’m sure Qantas would do similar. Beyond this point, a new entrant would be seen into the market most likely.
so the notion that the australian domestic tourism market will be crippled by the absence of virgin is false in my view.
Correct. And Qantas aren't idiots. In my opinion if VA does fall over then you can rely on the government demanding (and Qantas providing) public assurances about airfares and so on to address the price gouging risk.