Let's assume that some time in the next 12 months (ie by late March 2021), the lockdown ends and people are able to fly freely
Let's assume also that businesses, having seen what can be achieved with the likes of Zoom, decide to cut back significantly on business travel
Let's assume also that some measure of confidence returns and people decide they want to fly again for leisure in summer 2021
In effect, business travel demand is reduced long term, while leisure travel demand eventually recovers
What impact would this have on route networks and frequencies, particularly in Europe ? Clearly demand and frequencies on early morning and early evening on weekdays on routes between major cities may decline, with fleets being trimmed. Furthermore, airlines may get pushed more towards a LCC style business model, instead of an all-inclusive fare structure. What will likely happen to other routes and frequencies ?