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Old 1st Apr 2020, 15:00
  #17 (permalink)  
q400_driver
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Riga
Posts: 18
No economic downturn in the history has ever lasted for 8-10 years, not even Great Depression, no post war recessions, nothing. In 2011-14 if you would go for a CPL, people would call you crazy, same doomsday agenda, the only way to get a job, even in low costs was to go fly in Africa/Asia for a while, get 1500h and then MAYBE somebody would even bother to invite you for an assessment. Times changed over night and we saw some of the best years for young cadets in decades.

Nothing has really changed in the dynamics of global Economy. Sure, next few years will be tough, but as always, things will pick up. Right now most likely most decent schools in Europe have shut down already or will close shortly. Wait it out a little bit, there's nothing else you can do. Having a second career for times like these is a good advice.

Once the restrictions start to lift, one can assume an influx of high quality instructors into training industry. You want to do your pilot training when the economy is down - this typically means you get a good product for a low price. When times are good for the airlines, schools see high turnaround of instructors and you will deal with many instructors who will only have some 50-100h more than you do. Prices will be high and the attitudes from schools will go down. Nobody gives a toss about you when there are other students piling up.

Yes airlines are firing a LOT of pilots at the moment, but here's the thing..
First of all, airlines also have a LOT of metal sitting on the ground. These planes cost ridiculous money in leasing every month and there's no way out of it. Some airlines will go bankrupt but the machines will still make losses to somebody, be it a lessor, bank, an oil magnate, it doesn't matter - at some point they will need to fly again to pay themselves off and you will need people for that.
The second thing is - our human ability to listen to news, be intimidated, living in a lock down can only last for a year at best. Pretty soon the number of covid victims becomes nothing more than statistics and we will want to get back to our lives. It is in our DNA to travel. People need to get places, be it for study, business, family or pleasure. I can easily see governments starting to lift restrictions on many different things in next couple of months- ideally we could lift travel restrictions tomorrow with condition that everybody must wear a mask and people with symptoms are denied travel, we could make it a norm for most of our daily activities. Covid won't go away any time soon, but we will learn to live with it.
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