Northern Monkey - Apologies for being downbeat...I would hope that the modelling plays out.
"A 40% drop in global revenue passenger miles followed by a rapid snap-back and leveling out of 5% year-over-year growth starting in 2023". But..
Looking at the CFMU portal - Europe has gone from around 24000 movements a day to around 4000. The remaining 4000 includes freighters so the actual decrease in pax is massive.
At the other end of the world NZ has gone to handfuls of passengers a day during lock down. If/When countries get control they will likely impose restrictions for some time.
Singapore, as a hub, is a good one to watch. They have avoided lock down, for the moment. The airline and airport are effectively not operating. Daily cases have always been low.
The bounce back will be the key, but when. There are probably no models for this scenario. Will people want to travel. Will they have the money to travel.
The simple model says this kills 2% of the people. Maybe half of those people did not fly anyway. Clearly it is not that simple.
Last edited by sheepless; 1st Apr 2020 at 03:28.