Originally Posted by
DvEsp787
Hey, this is my first post on PPRuNe.
I am hoping to start my Integrated ATPL course by the end of this year/next year but, I have been seeing threads on PPRuNe saying that the bonanza of pilot shortage would simply not exist for the next 5-10 years/after COVID.
To quote, Flying Clog posted under Rumors and news: "The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019".
I am just another aspiring airline pilot but looking at the current and predicted situation should I look for something else rather than becoming a pilot?
Please correct me if I am wrong and I would love some advice, feedback, thoughts or whether I should pursue this dream forward...
Firstly, if Flying Clog could actually predict the future he wouldn’t be posting on here, he’d be counting his twentieth billion as a stock trader in Manhattan. You get my point... Not saying it’s an invalid opinion, but it is just an opinion.
I think it depends on how you’re funding the training as to what you should do. 3 options really
1. Your parents are loaded and are paying for the course, then go integrated. Money isn’t an issue so don’t need to worry about being modular and working on the side. Even if it takes you a bit of time to get the job you’ll have fun training and it’ll all be reasonably consistent if it’s from one provider. And in the unlikely event you never get a job it doesn’t really matter.
2. Parents are providing you security to remortgage/get a loan. I’d be careful going down this route at the moment because, whilst the economy may well rebound and you could get hired quickly, it might not. You don’t want to turf your parents out of their house because you can’t repay your loan. To be honest in this scenario the funding is all or nothing so I’d just leave it a year and reassess. 80k vs 100k modular vs integrated isn’t the issue here.
3. You’re saving to pay for it. Therefore you’re presumably in a good job already? If not, go and get one that allows you to save. Then go modular, worst case you slowly get hours and keep working. Best case you can suddenly turn on the taps and fire out all your licence requirements sharpish.
Advice about 10 years in another career first? Bit extreme for a backup job. Remember, most people have a back up job only as a backup, most don’t actually use it and if they do only for a short time. Unless you lose your medical or are just terrible at flying, there’s no reason why you wouldn’t be able to be a pilot for most of your working life. Don’t find many accountants who first got a two year plumbing qualification as a ‘backup’. 9/11 passed, as did the global crash. COVID is worse, no doubt about it, but the worlds population will keep increasing, as will people’s desire to fly. Long term this will be a (long and somewhat painful) blip.
You wouldn’t suddenly sell your pension fund just because the markets have crashed and never buy shares again? Why? Because you know it will recover if you ride it out, just the same for flying.