Originally Posted by
flocci_non_faccio
Anyone who thinks it's a hysterical reaction has their head firmly in the sand.
easyJet are talking about shrinking by a third: that is 1000+ pilots gone straight away. BA I'd expect to do the same: that's another 1200+ gone. Virgin may well not survive: I'm not sure of their pilot numbers but 8-900 would be a reasonable guess. TUI and Jet2 will shrink by an undetermined amount: let's be optimistic and say they get rid of 500 pilots each. That's 4000+ pilots gone without even considering the smaller carriers or Ryanair which isn't a UK carrier (albeit with a huge UK presence). It's also to say nothing of those still employed after the collapses of TCX and Flybe. Now I've actually looked in more depth, my original estimate of 3-4000 unemployed pilots looks wildly optimistic. It is probably closer to 6000, the majority of whom will never fly again and will never get a job which pays even an appreciable fraction of their current salary.
Be in no doubt that there is absolutely no reason to have even the faintest glimmer of hope.
What are you basing those projections on, other than licking your finger and sticking it up in the wind? Why do you think BA will shrink by a third and not one half, or a quarter, or an eighth?
The reality is no one knows how this is going to play out, exactly. We can't say for sure what demand will be in 5 years from now. Anyone claiming otherwise is full of hot air and nothing else. What is needed is a common sense approach. Do not start pilot training now. Build up your cash reserve as much as possible and adopt a wait and see approach. That's the most any of us can do, whether we are currently employed or not.